The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, with the peak typically falling between August and October.
Forecasters are expecting another active year for tropical activity.
In 2024, there were 11 hurricanes, five of which developed into major storms. Five of those made landfall in the U.S., including Helene and Milton, both of which struck as major hurricanes.
KEY NOTES:
- Likelihood of an above-normal season: 60%
- Estimated number of named storms: 13 to 19 (sustained winds of 39 mph or more)
- Projected hurricanes: 6 to 10 (winds of 74 mph or higher)
- Expected major hurricanes: 3 to 5 (Category 3 or higher, with winds of at least 111 mph)
Why this season may be more active
Several atmospheric and oceanic factors suggest a heightened season:
- Ocean temperatures are running warmer than usual.
- Wind shear is forecast to remain weak, favorable for storm development.
- The West African Monsoon, a key ingredient for storm formation, could be more active than normal. All these elements are typical precursors to increased tropical activity. According to National Weather Service Director Ken Graham, even the most intense hurricanes can escalate rapidly, sometimes reaching Category 5 status just days after forming as a tropical storm.
What’s new in forecasting and preparedness?
NOAA is rolling out several upgrades to help better track and prepare for storms:
- Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System upgrades aim to boost track and intensity prediction accuracy by another 5%.
- Early Warning Expansion: Tropical cyclone advisories can now be issued up to 72 hours before impacts like storm surge or strong winds are expected.
- Extended Risk Outlooks: The tropical hazards outlook now spans three weeks instead of two, giving more lead time for preparedness.
- Spanish-language updates: More products, including storm discussions and alerts, will be available in Spanish.
- Updated Forecast Cone: A new experimental graphic will display inland watch and warning areas in addition to the traditional storm path.
- Dual Advisory Highlights: The graphic will now indicate areas under both a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning.
- Rip Current Risk Mapping: When a tropical system is active, a map highlighting dangerous surf conditions will be available using local forecast data.
Implications for Texas:
Texas has a long history of heavy rainfall from tropical systems, many of which weren’t even hurricanes.
The deadliest risk in South-Central Texas tends to be inland flooding. Staying informed and understanding local flood risk is critical. Preparedness resources are available at: https://www.ksat.com/weather/2025/05/07/hurricane-preparedness-week-stay-ready/
There is still some uncertainty around how recent budget reductions might affect NOAA operations. While the core forecasting capabilities will continue, there could be impacts to research missions or data collection from hurricane reconnaissance aircraft.
- Read more from the meteorologists on the Whatever the Weather page
- Download KSAT’s weather app for customized, accurate forecasts in San Antonio, South Texas or wherever you are
- Find the latest forecasts, radar and alerts on the KSAT Weather Authority page
